January 2012 Retail Summary
Overall occupancy in January, 2012 for Aspen was up 4.3% over last year and up 8.8% in Snowmass. As of January 31st, February's overall occupancy was pacing 3.9% ahead of last year for Aspen and 12.2% ahead for Snowmass. Occupancy for the first week of March is pacing behind last year.
Aspen
MARKET OVERVIEW Despite a few minor hiccups, economic and consumer metrics continued to work in favor of destination travel during January, with almost all sectors behaving themselves. While the Dow Jones continued its strong momentum gain and the unemployment rate surprised even the most optimistic forecasters, consumer confidence declined moderately, though not enough to raise red flags. However, our primary support mechanism - marketable snow - has been absent for the first time in several years at a majority of destinations and this has created a new set of challenges. In recent years we've had epic snow to carry us through tough economic times and now we look to the economy to carry us through tough snow times. However, it seems that "good economy / bad snow" scenario may not be as supportive as "bad economy / good snow" was. Over the past 2 months we've watched as pacing has slowed or declined from last year, and 2011's gains in occupancy, rate and RevPAR are losing the momentum they've carried since last May, though the effect is more more prominent in some destinations than others.
Based on aggregate preliminary data from all MTRiP destinations Occupancy January is down -3.7 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 4.3 percent for the month . Bookings taken in January for arrival in January are down a dramatic -43.8 percent. Locally, Aspen Occupancy was up moderately 4.3 percent in January versus January 2011, with a slight decline in rate of -1.3 percent. Aspen bookings taken in January for arrival in January (not shown) were down - 18.7 percent, a better performance than in the industry as a whole, but a reversal of recent trends and likely the consequence of poor snowfall.
LOOKING FORWARD: There are many wildcards at play in the months ahead, not least of which are snowfall - or lack thereof - and sustainability of the recent economic momentum. Strong employment figures and gains in consumer confidence will be driving factors, as will the potential impact of further unrest in the EU amid new austerity measures. Expected sharp increases in gasoline prices may impact everything from air and rail tickets to the success of the summer drive market. It must be said that the weather has cooperated in most destinations over the past few weeks, but whether it is 'too little, too late' or an opportunity for a strong spring season will need to be played out. However, despite declines from last month things remain slightly better than last year as we look ahead. Based on an aggregate of preliminary MTRiP industry-wide data, on-the-books occupancy at all destinations for the upcoming six months (February - July ) is up 0.9 percent, while rate continues its modest climb, 1.9 percent higher than during the same period last year. Meanwhile, bookings made during January for arrival January - June are down a dramatic -23.8 percent compared to the same period in 2011.. Locally, Aspen on-the-books Occupancy for February is up a moderate 3.9 percent versus the same period last year, while bookings made in January for arrival January to June were down modestly -3.7 percent.
Snowmass
MARKET OVERVIEW: Despite a few minor hiccups, economic and consumer metrics continued to work in favor of destination travel during January, with almost all sectors behaving themselves. While the Dow Jones continued its strong momentum gain and the unemployment rate surprised even the most optimistic forecasters, consumer confidence declined moderately, though not enough to raise red flags. However, our primary support mechanism - marketable snow - has been absent for the first time in several years at a majority of destinations and this has created a new set of challenges. In recent years we've had epic snow to carry us through tough economic times and now we look to the economy to carry us through tough snow times. However, it seems that "good economy / bad snow" scenario may not be as supportive as "bad economy / good snow" was. Over the past 2 months we've watched as pacing has slowed or declined from last year, and 2011's gains in occupancy, rate and RevPAR are losing the momentum they've carried since last May, though the effect is more more prominent in some destinations than others. Based on aggregate preliminary data from all MTRiP destinations Occupancy January is down -3.7 percent versus the same time last year, while rate is up 4.3 percent for the month . Bookings taken in January for arrival in January are down a dramatic -43.8 percent. Locally, Snowmass Occupancy was up strongly 8.8 percent in January versus January 2011, with a slight increase in rate of 1.1 percent. Snowmass bookings taken in January for arrival in January (not shown) were down dramatically -58.3 percent, slightly below the industry aggregate and likely a consequence of uncertain snow conditions..
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